The Middle East, with its vast reserves of crude oil, had supplied over 30% of the world's petroleum, and significant deposits were still being discovered up until the late 2020s. For decades the region both benefited and was cursed by this wealth, with nations such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates capitalizing on the oil reserves, transforming their economies and quickly rising to become some of the richest nations in the world. Other nations in the region fell victim to economic hardships for a variety of reasons, from lacking the necessary infrastructure to properly export oil, to being over reliant on the resource and neglecting other aspects of their economy. This imbalance, coupled with decades of weak government rule and civil unrest, led to persistent and unrelenting civil conflict in the area.
The Crisis had lasting effects on the global economy, with decades of international struggle resulting from the abrupt and ill-choreographed transition away from petroleum, which powered the world for centuries since the Industrial Revolution. The event ultimately acted as the catalyst for the transformation of the United Nations into an international superpower, and birthed a new era of sustainable energy for decades to come.
Lead-up to The Crisis
Despite warnings from geologists and environmental watchdog groups of the unsustainability of oil industry in the region, the harvesting of crude oil continued as normal. National governments both in the Middle East region and worldwide refused to properly seek alternatives to petroleum fuels and products, leading to them being unprepared once the reality of the crisis became evident. By the mid 2030s, more and more sources of oil were drying up, and no new significant deposits were being discovered. Despite advancements in oil extraction and fracking technology, diminishing returns meant that the continued operation of oil pumps and rigs which had been active for decades was becoming financially unviable, and in some cases, impossible.
Oil Crisis
2039-2042: Initial Recession
Anticipating the coming lack of oil imports from the Middle East, at the time President of the United States Franklin Geribald lifted the previously instated Fields and Preservation Act, which limited the harvest of crude oil in the United States, namely in the states of Texas and Alaska. In addition, limits were lifted specifically from various oil corporations that restricted the amount of land they were allowed to prospect and frack in. These two actions prompted oil companies to rush and set up new plants in Texas and Alaska, flooding the domestic United States market with petroleum. Having an excess of crude oil also allowed for further exports, and for a period of time slowed the global oil recession.
In the end, the harvesting of crude oil from deposits in Texas and Alaska actually worsened the recession, as the companies taking from those deposits were overzealous. By 2041, over 75% of all oil fields and oil rigs established after the act's repeal were no longer in operation, and tens of thousands were left without jobs. leading to the creation of a 'new rust belt' in the two states. Despite this, the mass harvest gave the United States a large surplus of oil, which helped to cushion what would have otherwise been a disastrous crash once the Crisis truly began.
Alongside the expected drying up of long-standing crude oil sources, oil fields and rigs operating in the Persian Gulf went through a series of misfortunes including equipment malfunctions, worker strikes, and hostile takeovers from both religious extremist and eco-terrorist groups. This even further exacerbated the recession, as not only was less petroleum being collected, the harvesting operations still ongoing were hindered or halted. Ultimately, these slowdowns started the Middle East Oil Crisis in earnest, with exports from the region lessening to almost a quarter of what they were in the early 2030s.
Responding to the rapidly increasing scarcity of oil, the Organization of The Petroleum Exporting Companies (OPEC) began to cut extraction rates throughout the Persian Gulf. This lead to drastically raised prices for crude oil worldwide, but even this action could not do much to preserve the remaining oil in the region, as oil well dry-ups were still occurring. Ultimately, the petroleum price hikes from OPEC were what began the Middle East Oil Crisis in earnest, sparking extreme shortages worldwide.
2042-2046: Global Oil Shortages
Starting in 2042, nations around the world began to place rations on the usage of petroleum, hoping to slow down the rate at which they used up their dwindling supplies. By late 2043, this progressed to outright bans in some places, with the use of fuel restricted only to critical infrastructure, military, and government applications. This prompted wide-spread civil unrest worldwide, as travel became impossible for many, and thousands of jobs were lost in industries that were reliant on the use of petroleum.
Many countries and corporate entities attempted to mitigate the lack of fuel by designing and releasing new electrical powered vehicles and machinery. However, a lack of meaningful alternative power infrastructure meant that these were poor substitutes for at the time standard fuel-powered transportation. Many nations tried to institute the rapid construction of solar, wind, hydroponic, and even coal-based sources of power, but these efforts fell flat and bore no real results due to inefficiency, or in the case of coal power, similar sustainability concerns.
Early 2044, the United Nations released a sustainability guide for the usage of fuel, and proposed a plan for a worldwide switch to more renewable energy that was unanimously accepted. The United States of America passed their surplus stocks of crude oil acquired from the 2039-2041 rush to the UN, whom acted as a middle man for the distribution of fuel to various humanitarian groups. This led to the United States gaining more local reputation, especially in the Middle East, a region which had been historically hostile to the nation. The United Nations as an organization also gained more political and economic gravitas as it found itself in control of almost the entire global supply of crude oil.
Mounting civil unrest in the Middle East flared further after the United Nations began entrusting oil distribution to local entities, leading to favoritism and some ethnic and religious groups not getting any fuel outright due to tribalism. Local governments and the civilian population almost entirely lost their trust in the UN as a result of this, and widespread violence against humanitarian groups began, continuing even after it reverted its methods of distribution. The near total cessation of humanitarian efforts in the region followed, causing almost complete civil collapse in several nations now that they were without international support.
2046-2048: The Great Gulf War
Rising Tensions
The United Arab Emirates, despite the United Nation's recent stop of humanitarian efforts and other oversights in the region, pushed for their claims over the islands of Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs to once again be visited UN International Court of Justice. Rather than deferring it to a later date as the UN Security Council had done earlier in 1980, the issue was heard, and judgement was passed in the favor of the UAE. Despite outcry by Iranian officials, ownership of the islands passed to the UAE, who used the new territory to extend their exclusive economic zone further and gain control of multiple oil rigs within the Persian Gulf still in operation.
Tensions mounted further in the Persian Gulf after Iranian military assets mobilized, emboldened by the new lack of United Nations oversight in the region. The armies of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates mobilized as well in anticipation of a possible strike. These mobilizations preceded a new wave of activity from terror and militant groups believed to have connections to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including a second uprising in Bahrain, and strikes from Houthi militants on Saudi Arabian oil fields.
These proxy actions found general success and served to take eyes off of the increasing Iranian mobilization in the region. The Al-Mukhtar and Al-Ashtar Brigades in Bahrain did not manage to fully overthrow the Bahraini government, but caused major damage to vital infrastructure within the country. Similarly, the Houthi attacks brought down several sources of oil for Saudi Arabia, denying them vital petroleum and forcing them to relegate parts of their army to garrison in case of future attacks.
Early War
Iranian military buildup continued in the Persian Gulf following initial mobilization. Air and naval assets from Iran frequently antagonized Saudi and Emirati borders during this time, probing responses by violating air-space and territorial waters. On August 11th, 2046, the Iranian Air Force initiated the Great Gulf War by bombing several military bases and installations in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, alongside seizing the previously lost Abu Masa and Tunbs islands, followed by a formal declaration of war the next day, as well as declarations of war from the two nations on Iran.
In response, Saudi Arabia and the UAE attempted retaliatory airstrikes and sea assaults, the former of which were ineffective, but the latter of which caused severe damage to Iranian naval assets. During this, the Royal Saudi Navy vessel Al Dammam shot down a United Arab Emirates military flight returning from a mission, believing them to be Iranian bombers en-route to Saudi Arabia. This prompted several more exchanges of hostilities, and military communication between the two nations broke down entirely, causing them to declare war on each other as well.
An Iranian forward naval base operating in secret on Arzanah Island was discovered by the UAE and the Saudi Arabians independent of each other, which resulted in both nations launching naval strikes on it simultaneously. What followed was a three-way naval battle around the island that resulted in almost the total loss of the United Arab Emirates navy, several sunk or extremely damaged vessels in the Royal Saudi Navy, and the establishment of naval superiority by the Iranian navy. The beginning of the war in earnest pushed civil tensions in the region to its breaking point, and martial law was swiftly declared in almost all of the countries in the Persian Gulf.
The use of martial law was unsuccessful in Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain, leading to an almost total collapse of order in the three nations. Following this, Saudi Arabia summarily invaded them, citing their wish to restore order in the neighboring states. In reality, they sought to seize and control foreign sources of oil to fuel the war against Iran, which was predicted to be a prolonged conflict. While those operations were ongoing, the Iranian navy established blockades along the UAE and Saudi coastlines, launched amphibious assaults to seize control of hostile oil rigs in the Gulf, and attempted an invasion of the two hostile countries by sea.
Invasion of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates
Saudi Arabia launched their own simultaneous invasion of the United Arab Emirates by land. While the UAE may have had the ability to stave off an Iranian or Saudi invasion on its own, being attacked by two overwhelming forces on two different fronts stretched manpower and supplies far too thin for either front to be tenable. Desertion was also a major problem during this time, as many in the Emirati army saw their situation as completely hopeless.
The dual invasions of the United Arab Emirates found great success, as the invading Iranian and Saudi armies greatly outnumbered the UAE armed forces. The army of the UAE routed shortly after large-scale engagement against hostile troops, leading to a rapid advance throughout the country, with Abu Dhabi being claimed by Iranian amphibious assaults within the first few days. Saudi troops entered Dubai on March 25th, 2047, and the government of the United Arab Emirates subsequently surrendered the following day. Despite the formal surrender, irregular and guerrilla fighting continued in the country, though little was accomplished by it aside from harassment of garrisoned soldiers.
Meanwhile, Iran's invasion of Saudi Arabia floundered, with initial assaults unable to achieve much aside from establishing beachheads. Even after opening up a new front in the east following the defeat of the UAE, the war was locked in a stalemate. Unable to support the military's demand for fuel even following the seizure of Saudi oil rigs, and unwilling to deploy nuclear weapons as it would receive an international response, Iran appealed to the Russian Federation for aid. Russia supplied them with fuel, materiel, and volunteer forces, leading to a revitalization of the Iranian offensive on all fronts in early 2048.
Gulf Collapse
This created a storm of unrest and anarchy that caused the utter collapse of Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the withdrawal of Russian troops from the region, resulting in the end of The Great Gulf War in mid-2048. During Iran's collapse, several nuclear assets were deployed in the lands of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and even Iran itself that sat in the Persian Gulf region, resulting in widespread, indiscriminate devastation, radioactive contamination and major global environmental repercussions as a result of fallout and ignited oil fields. What little civil order remained in nearby nations uninvolved in the war such as Yemen, Oman, Iraq, Jordan, and some regions of Pakistan and Afghanistan, collapsed under the new threat of nuclear fallout and extreme pollution.
The civilian populace of the region, who looked upon the United States of America more warmly following their recent humanitarian efforts, pleaded to it for aid. The United States intervened, however, it routed its forces through the United Nations, which deployed them to the Persian Gulf as peacekeepers with the aim of restoring order and re-instituting the sovereignty of Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. Their efforts to restore sovereignty failed, however, and permanent interim governments under the direct control of the United Nations were established instead.
2048-2049: Transition to Renewable Energy
The 2044 United Nations plan for a switch to more renewable energy was more effective than anticipated, and by 2048, many first and second world countries had infrastructure in place to allow for power without the need for crude oil. Innovations were also made in the field of nuclear fusion that led to reliable results, resulting in the construction of the first purpose-made fusion power plant in the United States on October 21st, 2048. Electrical transportation also had multiple breakthroughs and became far more affordable and efficient, leading to electric vehicles becoming the new standard instead of older petroleum-fueled models.
By early 2049. 80% of all power infrastructure in major UN nations such as The United States of America, The United Kingdom, and France were fusion-based or otherwise renewable. United Nations humanitarian efforts assisted other nations in setting up fusion power, as well as pushing for further standardization of electrical transportation. Some countries still refused to switch to renewable power, namely Ireland, Bulgaria and Romania, which resulted in the United Nations directly sanctioning them and outright denying services such as humanitarian aid in several cases.
Such intense guiding towards renewable energy, and sanctions on nations that resisted that guidance, was seen as UN overreach, resulting in multiple protests in nations less effected by the crisis such as Italy, Poland, and France. These protests garnered a direct response from the United Nations, leading to a deployment of peacekeepers under the oversight of UNPOL. As the peacekeepers are primarily a military force, this was seen as a form of martial law, but it proved effective and the protests soon died down after several initial flareups, further cementing UN authority.
Post Crisis
Starting in 2050, 95% of countries on Earth had switched to fusion and fission based energy nationally, with other sources of green energy used at the local level. The efforts of the United Nations were instrumental in cushioning and amending what would have been an otherwise disastrous crash of the global economy, and methods of humanitarian efforts and peacekeeping became more proactive. For the most part, the global population looked upon the United Nations far more favorably following the crisis, and this combined with their more direct doctrine of disaster response and peacekeeper deployment resulted in the organization becoming one of the most powerful entities on Earth.
In light of the crisis, Earth was also facing a major issue of overpopulation. Seeking to remedy this, the United Nations involved itself in the ongoing efforts of colonization, pouring their newfound political and economic power into projects such as the colonies on Mars and the construction of the Venusian platforms. This caused them to hold major sway not only on Earth but also elsewhere in Sol, and many began to view the UN as a power eclipsing that of long-standing nations such as the United States of America and the Russian Federation.
The post-crisis time served as an interim period where the UN held de-facto power over planetary government, but no real authority had yet been written into law. These circumstances eventually led to the proposal of the Constellation Act to the UN General Assembly in 2052, which passed and officially designated the United Nations the planetary government. The milestone that was passing the Constellation Act reflected the evolution of the United Nations from a deliberative body into an organization dedicated to managing interplanetary matters and enforcing peace between the nations of Earth, mostly subsuming the United States of America as world police, and eventually leading to the dissolution of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 2056 as the alliance had become defunct.